by Chris Evett, Director at Simplexity
The team at Simplexity Analysis are very excited to bring to you our first forecast on the future of healthcare. As a forecast, we believe its kind of a big deal because it has been entirely produced using the principles of data driven forecasting. Unlike a lot of futures reports, this analysis is based entirely on openly available data and analysed and visualised in a manner that illustrates all of the available data used to derive judgements. We believe this is important as it means we can reduce bias in our assessments but also when we make predictions for the future we can produce quantified assessments to reflect our belief in whether they will happen or not. Using our analysis, we’ve summarised what we think the most likely future trends are for the future of healthcare.
Top 5 trends in Healthcare 2015 – 2050.
1. Fee paying healthcare is likely to increase out to 2050.
Insight – Because of greater demand on health systems (ageing, obesity and disease), the rise of new healthcare markets and strategies (from emerging markets) and increasing technologies and medications to promote and prolong life, fully funded state-based healthcare is unlikely to be sustainable out to 2050.
Judgement – There is a probability of 0.8 that by 2050, countries like the UK will deliver a far greater proportion of their healthcare through private agencies. State-based provision is likely to become increasingly difficult because of the continued evolution of diverse healthcare demands and increasingly complex technical requirements of future treatments. By such a point, states are likely to focus on facilitating access to affordable healthcare and promoting healthier lifestyles.
2. Global obesity rates are likely to increase over the next 30 years, prompting significant initiatives to address them.
Insight – Without coordinated intervention global obesity rates are likely to increase out to 2050. Basic projections suggest that if global obesity continues at its current level, an estimated 2 billion people in a global population of 7 billion in 2013 (contrasting with 857 million from a global population of 4.5 billion in 1980), then by 2050, around 30-60% of the global population will be obese. In total numbers, if the global population reaches 9.5 billion by 2050, this will represent a range of 2.7-5.7 billion obese people.
Judgement – There is a 0.95 probability that the levels of obesity in the global population will increase from 2014-2050. This trend will be driven by higher calorie diets as lower activity levels become the global norm. However, the problem may become so significant, so quickly, that policy reforms, new technologies and medicines may provide the necessary interventions to mitigate this trend.
3. Out to 2050, states are more likely to occupy the role of facilitating healthcare access as opposed to direct provision.
Insight – Over the next 30 years, the rising cost of healthcare and the increasing diversity of technologies and medicines to promote health and prolong life will mean state-based care strategies will be increasingly costly to maintain. This is likely to lead to many countries developing less costly models to promote and facilitate access to healthcare, guaranteeing a level of access to the least well off citizens alone, whilst enabling access (through part funded and tax incentive schemes) to the majority of their citizens. However, due to the variability of national strategies and priorities, there will be considerable variation in the political attitude to toward state-based healthcare.
Judgment – There is a 0.65 Probability that governments will move to roles based on facilitating access to healthcare as opposed to being the direct provider.
4. The use of healthcare data will be increasingly important for healthcare treatments.
Insight – Out to 2050, improvements in sensor technology, data collection and increasingly available open data will drive metric collection and increasingly sophisticated trials and health strategies. Such developments will change many perceptions on the use/protection of health information and patient confidentiality.
Judgment – The use of healthcare data will increase out to 2050. It is a certainty that data (once it has been approved for confidentiality and legal consideration) will be collected and used to improve the quality of human healthcare.
5. Policies to encourage healthy behaviours and lifestyles are likely to become increasingly important.
Insight – To reduce long term health issues government and company policies are increasingly likely to promote healthy behaviors and lifestyles to reduce long term costs on industry and the state. Such strategies will be more cost effective to implement in the long term and reduce the treatment of symptoms rather than the causes. However, certain specific requirements such as the guarantee of basic security and emergency responses to save lives will remain key ‘duties of care’ that will need to be maintained.
Judgment – There is a 0.7 Probability that policies to encourage healthy behaviors will increase over the next 30 years.
Judgment – There is a 0.95 Probability that the duty of care of governments to maintain and protect the health and safety of their citizens will endure out to 2050.
How we produced these insights and judgments
We produced the insights and judgements above by undertaking an aggregate forecast. For this we took 17 strategic foresight reports produced from 2000-2014 and analysed all the trends and predictions they contained. This enabled us to collect quantitative data (arguably from qualitative sources) and then rank our insights and judgments based on the most reported trends and issues. Using data visualisation software, we were able to represent all of these trends in a ‘knowledge map’ summarising the information found from analysing these outputs.
Doing such analysis allows us to be explicit about the data we are using for our judgments. Presenting it in such a format means we can refer to the frequencies of trends being reported and develop probabilities for them, which we can then associate with the trends and predictions we’ve collected. This technique for data-driven forecasting, we believe, provides an interesting alternative to futures analysis as opposed to scenario planning and facilitation-based exercises. This isn’t to say, these things aren’t worth pursuing, but, they’re probably most effectively used at a particular time in the research process.
Finally, the really interesting thing about analysing and presenting data in this way, means you can easily collect all the ‘outliers’. These are the rare, and very low reported trends. When you get all these together they can make for interesting reading, just think, if we’d done this exercise in 2009 – where would the term ‘healthcare metrics’ appeared?
9 ‘Outlier’ trends for the future of Health
- The next pandemic may not be flu.
- Both Japan and the EU may suffer from a shortage of trained healthcare providers in the future.
- Long term chronic illness (such as diabetes or forms of cancer) could represent significant healthcare issues in the future.
- Hypertension could be an increasingly significant healthcare issue.
- The rise of counterfeit medicines and synthetic narcotics could be of potential significance to the future of human health and the pharmaceutical industry.
- The increased use and sophistication of biomarkers could be significant for addressing future health challenges.
- Cognitive systems that sense, act, think, feel, communicate and evolve, could be increasingly important in how we understand and improve the healthcare solutions at our disposal.
- ‘Localisation’ and the local environment could be increasingly significant for how healthcare options are delivered to the surrounding populace.
- A revolution in farming and agriculture could improve or alter health dynamics anywhere around the world.
If you’re interested in learning more in how we’ve produced this forecast or would like the full report, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.